The COVID-19 pandemic led to monumental public curiosity in statistics, with sudden and pressing want to trace the virus nearly in actual time. While this was an enormous problem for our statisticians, it led to actual innovation in the best way we handle and current knowledge and statistics.
UKHSA’s COVID-19 dashboard has been an enormous success in presenting day by day updates on the newest scenario in relation to infections and vaccinations, and it continues to be a vital useful resource.
Why do we have to make adjustments?
Our job as statisticians is to supply essentially the most helpful and related info for the present scenario. Now that we’ve moved to living with COVID, we have to evaluation our reporting of COVID-19 statistics to make sure that we’re wanting on the proper metrics for our lives at the moment. This has meant making adjustments to how we current knowledge within the COVID-19 dashboard and COVID-19 surveillance statistics, and these adjustments are summarised beneath.
Completely different measures of vaccine uptake
UKHSA is presently reporting two totally different measures of vaccine uptake. They measure various things and shouldn’t be used interchangeably:
Administrative uptake is an operational measure that studies the overall variety of 1st, 2nd and third doses delivered throughout all the COVID-19 vaccination programme, as a proportion of the eligible inhabitants. The ONS mid-2020 population estimate is used as a measure of the eligible inhabitants.
This metric was helpful firstly of the mass vaccine roll-out as a approach of measuring success in delivering vaccines. It will also be calculated for all 4 nations of the UK and so allows some comparisons. Nonetheless, it has turn into much less helpful over time: it doesn’t change a lot week-to-week and it focuses on the unique vaccine programme which is now largely prior to now.
Protection is a way more helpful approach of vaccine uptake now that COVID-19 and the related vaccine programme have turn into embedded in our lifestyle. This metric studies the quantity of people that have been vaccinated as a proportion of the overall present registered inhabitants. Crucially, for protection, each the quantity vaccinated and the scale of the inhabitants eligible for vaccination come from NIMS (Nationwide Immunisation Administration System), a dwell system that features everybody registered with the NHS.
Protection is the statistic we use in England for reporting on vaccine uptake across all vaccine programmes. It isn’t attainable to calculate this measure throughout all 4 nations that make up the UK as a result of not all nations have a dwell register corresponding to NIMS.
The WHO guidance on COVID-19 vaccination monitoring advocates utilizing each uptake and protection measures however acknowledges that administrative uptake turns into much less helpful over time. Switching our focus to protection allows correct monitoring consistent with the WHO steerage.
What adjustments have we made?
We’re making some adjustments to the look of the COVID-19 dashboard and the national flu and COVID-19 surveillance statistics to deal with the vaccine protection measures. Provided that immunity wanes over time, we have now additionally taken this chance to deal with the autumn booster marketing campaign, as these are most related to understanding the present scenario round COVID-19 vaccination.
Whenever you open the COVID-19 dashboard from at the moment, the very first thing you will notice is protection statistics for the autumn booster marketing campaign. Equally, from Thursday 1 December the related part of the weekly COVID-19 surveillance report might be targeted on the autumn booster.
These are essentially the most related and helpful statistics as we transfer from pandemic to residing with COVID. As future campaigns happen we anticipate making comparable adjustments in order that we’re all the time reporting essentially the most helpful and related statistics.
The executive uptake statistics are nonetheless out there by way of the dashboard API and within the tables that complement the COVID-19 surveillance statistics.
We’re engaged on additional developments to the COVID-19 dashboard and the COVID-19 surveillance statistics to make sure they continue to be related, helpful and per greatest apply. We are going to maintain you posted as we progress.
We welcome your suggestions on these adjustments, our COVID-19 statistics or our statistical merchandise extra usually. Please get in contact at firstname.lastname@example.org or UKHSA_HOPSTATS@ukhsa.gov.uk