ICDP has questioned whether or not automotive producers will retain a need to modify from a franchise to an company retail mannequin if client demand and inflation “head on reverse instructions” in 2023.
The automotive distribution and retail consultancy newest government briefing, written by affiliate director Ben Waller, mentioned that the centralised automobile inventories of an company mannequin may ship a rise in web revenue of two.8% alone.
However whereas the report was clear that the shift to company may deliver advantages for OEMs, it additionally highlighted the manufacturing and stock administration disciplines they would wish to ship success.
Waller mentioned that the excessive demand and restricted provide that had proved massively worthwhile for OEMs and automotive sellers lately was not a strategic success however the results of “a bullwhip impact” brought on by macro-economic issue within the post-COVID interval.
And he added: “With the spectre of rising inflation and recession throughout the globe, can carmakers embed the just lately confirmed options for stock administration, to maintain wholesome profitability as demand weakens and provide chain capability returns?”
ICDP concluded that company mannequin automotive retail would “current challenges” if any oversupply of automobiles was allowed to develop.
With franchised retailers unable to pre-register automobiles, it famous that OEMs personal fleet, rental and subscription channels must try and mop-up any oversupply in a worthwhile manner.
However the “greatest danger” to the deliberate swap – set to be made by the likes of Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis and the Volkswagen Group within the near-term – and the danger to that steadiness between provide and demand will proceed to be financial components.
Waller wrote: “If demand softens into 2023 as many anticipate, then a provide scarcity can in a short time grow to be an oversupply downside, with all the prices and income losses that oversupply can generate.”
He added: “Whether or not carmakers will retain their curiosity in company, particularly if inflation and demand start to go in reverse instructions, stays open to query.
“However the alternative exists to begin with in the present day’s environment friendly and worthwhile provide chain, make that sustainable and embedded, and drive very actual advantages for all stakeholders earlier than doubtlessly making the second stage leap to company.”
Suzuki GB director of vehicle Dale Wyatt has emerged as some of the vocal opponents to company mannequin automotive retail.
To learn the complete ICDP sector report, click here.